Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

204
FXUS65 KGJT 282327
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
527 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warnings are in
  place for southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado through
  10 PM tonight.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue
  throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The parent trough is draped across the Great Basin this
afternoon per water vapor imagery with a dry stream of air
traveling around its base and into our CWA. The pressure
gradient ahead of this trough remains strong, and intense wind
gusts persist this afternoon as a result, though they have been
dragging behind the forecast to a degree. Nonetheless, gusts are
currently sitting at 30-45 mph across the region, and for
portions of southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado are
expected to bump up to 45-55 mph throughout the afternoon.
With relative humidity still anticipated to fall into the single
digits this afternoon as well, the extreme fire weather setup is
still in place.

Though the low begins to move to the northeast Monday, taking
the tightest pressure gradient and strongest winds with it, the
parent trough hardly budges. As such we will still be on the
windy and dry side throughout the week, though the intensity of
fire weather concerns will weaken somewhat. Still, look for
critical fire weather conditions to be exhibited across most
areas of the region as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Elevated southwesterly winds will continue through sunset before
weakening overnight. A weak boundary dropping south will shift
winds to westerly along the western I-70 corridor, including
KGJT and KCNY, and northwesterly to the north for KVEL and KHDN.
Other terminals will see either a switch to typical terrain
driven patterns, or prevailing southerly winds. Skies will
remain mostly clear and VFR conditions will prevail. However,
smoke from wildfires across the area will lead to reduced
visibility and lowered ceilings for terminals under the plume.
This will include KMTJ and KGJT, with the potential for smoke to
reach as far as KHDN, KASE, KRIL, and KEGE. MVFR to IFR
conditions will be possible in the smoke, with the potential to
drop into LIFR where smoke is thickest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Numerous fire starts developed across the central and southern
part of the CWA yesterday and exhibited extreme behaviors. With
some hot spots burning throughout the night and in anticipation
of similar weather conditions today in regards to gusts and
relative humidity, concerns have risen of another extreme
wildfire day today. Winds are not quite as strong as initially
anticipated, but the expectation remains for gusts to exceed 45
mph this afternoon and rise as high as 55 mph. The strongest
conditions look to occur near existing wildfires, namely the
Snyder, Ferris, and Babylon Fires. However, other fires in the
area could be exposed to similarly strong conditions. Wherever
the worst winds and RH develop, all fires will have the
potential for rapid wildfire spread today. As such, a
Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag situation is in place
through 10 PM.

Additionally, a frontal boundary is presently spread across the
Tavaputs and Roan Cliffs. To the northwest, winds are
northwesterly. Over the afternoon, the boundary will dip
southwards towards I-70, bringing the northwesterly winds with
it. The question remains, will it fall south enough to pass over
the Snyder Fire? Most hi-res models suggest it will not, and
that only a minimal wind shift to the west is possible.
However, some models such as the HRRR and RAP are noting the
boundary will pass over the fire and winds here will shift to
northwesterly. As of now, a weak to no wind shift is the
likeliest outcome, but uncertainty due to the placement of the
frontal boundary means we cannot rule out the wind shift. If
winds do shift, look for it to occur between 8-10 PM local time.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ202-203-
     205-207-290>295.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292>294.
     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ011-020-021.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490-
     491.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for UTZ487-490-491.
     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...BW/TGJT