Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

965
FXUS65 KGJT 220424
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
924 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm conditions continue into mid next week.

- Several systems will move through the area in the next 7 days
  bringing snow mainly to the mountains and perhaps some high
  valleys.

- Snowfall could impact travel in the mountains tomorrow night
  into Monday and again on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2024

A ridge of high pressure is in place over the region today leaving
us relatively warm and dry. Tomorrow a shortwave trough moves over
the Northern Rockies causing the ridge to flatten. This system will
result in cloud cover over the next few days as zonal flow ushers in
Pacific moisture. Late tomorrow a subtle wave along with a more
substantial slug of moisture approaches from the Great Basin. Most
precipitation should hold off until after sunset. This wave tracks
through rather quick and looks to favor the northern mountains. Used
the lower end of guidance regarding temperatures for some of the
snow-covered high valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2024

Next week looks to be more active as current model guidance suggests
several shortwave troughs will impact the region beginning early
Monday when a weak shortwave transits the northern portion of our
CWA. While accompanying PWAT`s are ~200% above normal, the lack of
upper-level support has left the NBM to indicate little
precipitation with this storm. Higher elevations north of I-70
should be the focus, though accumulations still look to be under 6"
here. Other mountain ranges may see flurries or light snowfall as
well.

Brief ridging builds behind this initial disturbance Tuesday before
a more organized trough migrates over the Rockies with the most
notable impacts Thursday morning. Stronger forcing with this system
should support region-wide precipitation, though PWAT`s take a
slight dip to ~175% above normal, inhibiting snowfall potential to
an extent. Ensemble spread of snowfall accumulation indicates a good
deal of uncertainty, ranging from little more than flurries, to over
6" of snow accumulation for many mountain ranges. Probabilities look
to favor the drier end of that spectrum at the moment, though our
latest forecast has brought up accumulations slightly, so the
outlook for this system could certainly alter as it nears.

Another lull in active weather following this event looks to be very
short-lived before another, and likely final shortwave for the week
arrives late Thursday evening. The exact timing and impacts
associated with this shortwave are still uncertain at the moment and
should garner more clarity over the coming days. Stay up-to-date
with the latest forecasts as more details come into focus for all
these systems.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 925 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2024

High level cloudiness will continue to stream in from the West
and as additional moisture is entrained in the flow...clouds
will lower toward mountain top level through the afternoon hours
on Sunday. However VFR is forecast for the next 24 hours at our TAF
sites with winds generally remaining light.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT